I think so; the volume of comments implying that either:

1. The US is just amplifying this to justify a war

2. The balloons are totally civilian

3. Aliens

Strike me as a relatively coarse influence campaign, notable mainly for its volume. Not sure if the ramp up is to save face, or part of a larger effort. Similar efforts were notable before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

the Russian military had this strange anti-satellite missile test - last January, right before the war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvdQcDDUV1o

You could be right about that, but Occam's razor (there's lots of morons on the internet) is also a plausible explanation. Maybe a bit of both.

I suspect a lot of "disinformation" by hostile parties just serves to provide the idiots with material that appeals to them, and they run with it.

It's not. There's plenty of that elsewhere as well.

Exactly. So we mostly have useful idiots here.

Taiwan has enough missiles to sink and shoot down a significant portion of China's navy and air-force. This would then open them up to attacks from India or Vietnam to claim territory currently under dispute, and create openings for China's rivals to destabilize their government by agitating existing aggrieved political minorities towards action.

China getting serious over Taiwan would be them creating deeper ties with Taiwan's economy and ruling body, and just waiting a few decades.

I really hope not, but this seems to be the most logical non-aliens conclusion I've seen so far