> imagine a CEO who acquires an AI assistant. They begin by giving it simple, low-level assignments, like drafting emails and suggesting purchases. As the AI improves over time, it progressively becomes much better at these things than their employees. So the AI gets “promoted.” Rather than drafting emails, it now has full control of the inbox. Rather than suggesting purchases, it’s eventually allowed to access bank accounts and buy things automatically
Ok let’s pause for a second and observe the slippery way the author has described “AI” progress. In the author’s world, this AI isn’t just a limited tool, it’s a self-improving independent agent. It’s an argument that relies on the existence of something that doesn’t presently exist, solving problems that won’t exist by the time it gets here. We already have tools that can draft emails and suggest purchases. The email drafts require oversight and…no one trusts product recommendation. And importantly, they are non overlapping. It turns out that specialization in one area doesn’t transfer. No matter how good you are at writing emails, it doesn’t lend itself to running a company.
Ok let’s pause for a second and observe the slippery way the author has described “AI” progress. In the author’s world, this AI isn’t just a limited tool, it’s a self-improving independent agent. It’s an argument that relies on the existence of something that doesn’t presently exist, solving problems that won’t exist by the time it gets here. We already have tools that can draft emails and suggest purchases. The email drafts require oversight and…no one trusts product recommendation. And importantly, they are non overlapping. It turns out that specialization in one area doesn’t transfer. No matter how good you are at writing emails, it doesn’t lend itself to running a company.