(Just for the sake of argument, and of course, in the odd event the U.S. went for a plan like this, you'd assume a long transition period so as not to screw people's ability to plan.)
The first trillion is "easy", insofar as it's revenue/spending that you could eventually redirect:
~$600B in existing Social Security taxes/spending.
~$400B in non-healthcare-related welfare spending, like food stamps and unemployment benefits.
You could maybe squeeze out another couple hundred billion from reducing aid to states and other programs made redundant by the new payments.
But the next nearly two trillion is really hard. Eliminating the entire defense budget wouldn't get you even a trillion. Doing the equivalent of lifting the Social Security tax cap and adding a marginal 12% to high-earner income would only net you another $125B.
If you were serious, you'd need to either double income taxes, most of which would come from the middle class, or impose a VAT or sales tax around 20% that would raise the equivalent (which would hit the middle class and the poor). Taxing the rich alone won't do, unless you really believe that ~70% marginal rates would actually raise twice the revenue of ~35% marginal rates.
And all of this assumes you can do this without tanking the economy and thus tax revenue.
Anyway, I'm actually hoping Switzerland goes through with it, since it will be interesting to see what happens. I'm all for unconditional cash payments as the main form of welfare, though I think something like the EITC on steroids would work better to ensure people who can work productively do.
The USA is significantly cheaper than Switzerland, though, so you don't need nearly the same amount here as Switzerland.
I have a hard time figuring out what the ideal grant amount is, but I'd want $15k as an absolute maximum, and more likely something like $10k-$12k. And like you mention, getting to there from here is pretty trivial if you think redirecting SS and Medicare funding is an option.
> I have a hard time figuring out what the ideal grant amount is, but I'd want $15k as an absolute maximum, and more likely something like $10k-$12k.
That seems unrealistically low. Around here, 10k isn't even enough to pay rent on a studio in a low-income area populated largely by migrant day laborers. What is the point of a minimum income if it isn't even enough to keep a minimum roof over your head?
Who says everyone has the right to a private apartment in a high cost-of-living area?
There's no shame in having roommates, and there's no shame in living in Nebraska. My goals are (a) to make sure no one lacks the necessities of life and (b) to make us a richer society. Making it so that everyone can afford a studio in the Bay Area would be very low on my list of priorities, if it were even possible.
I'm not talking about the San Francisco Bay Area. I'm talking about a place so thickly populated by low-income Mexican migrant workers that there are actually more hispanic markets than normal American supermarkets. To characterize people who stand on street corners and wait to be picked up for construction projects as rich folk seems pretty odd to me.
I think 12k or 13k a year is realistic in America for a single person, although it would not be easy surviving on this amount (especially if one has a family). Not in NYC or San Fran, but again that's incentive to work if one wants to live in the most expensive areas.
The first trillion is "easy", insofar as it's revenue/spending that you could eventually redirect:
~$600B in existing Social Security taxes/spending. ~$400B in non-healthcare-related welfare spending, like food stamps and unemployment benefits.
You could maybe squeeze out another couple hundred billion from reducing aid to states and other programs made redundant by the new payments.
But the next nearly two trillion is really hard. Eliminating the entire defense budget wouldn't get you even a trillion. Doing the equivalent of lifting the Social Security tax cap and adding a marginal 12% to high-earner income would only net you another $125B.
If you were serious, you'd need to either double income taxes, most of which would come from the middle class, or impose a VAT or sales tax around 20% that would raise the equivalent (which would hit the middle class and the poor). Taxing the rich alone won't do, unless you really believe that ~70% marginal rates would actually raise twice the revenue of ~35% marginal rates.
And all of this assumes you can do this without tanking the economy and thus tax revenue.
Anyway, I'm actually hoping Switzerland goes through with it, since it will be interesting to see what happens. I'm all for unconditional cash payments as the main form of welfare, though I think something like the EITC on steroids would work better to ensure people who can work productively do.